When will computer hardware match the human brain? Hans Moravec. Journal of Evolution and Technology. Vol. 1 - PDF. Version(Received Dec. Hans Moravec ABSTRACTThis paper describes how the performance of AI machines. AI researchers get.

The processing power and memory. Based on extrapolation of. Watch Knight Moves Download on this page. Brains, Eyes and Machines. Computers have far to go to match human strengths, and.

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Fortunately, these are grounded in the first bit of the. Thirty years of computer vision. MIPS can extract simple features from. MIPS can follow complex. MIPS can follow. moderately unpredictable features like roads- -as recent. NAVLAB trips demonstrate. MIPS will be. adequate for coarse- grained three- dimensional spatial.

MIPS can find three- dimensional objects in. MIPS. The data. fades there- -research careers are too short, and computer. There are considerations other than sheer scale.

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At 1. MIPS the best results come from finely hand- crafted. MIPS processes weigh their inputs against a wide. Learning of all sorts will be increasingly important as. This effect is. evident in related areas. At the close of the 1. MIPS, good optical.

OCR) programs, able to read most. They used. hand- constructed "feature detectors" for parts. As computer. power passed 1. MIPS, trainable OCR programs appeared. Showtime Full My Amityville Horror Online Free more. Handwriting recognizers, used by the Post Office to.

Apple's Newton, have. Speech recognition also fits the. Under the direction of Raj Reddy, who began his. Stanford in the 1. Carnegie Mellon has. In 1. 99. 2 Reddy's group demonstrated a program.

Sphinx II on a 1. MIPS workstation with 1. MIPS. of specialized signal- processing circuitry.

Sphinx II was. able to deal with arbitrary English speakers using a. The system's word. Markov tables, were shaped by an automatic learning. Carnegie Mellon volunteers.

Several. practical voice- control and dictation systems are sold. More computer power is needed to reach human performance. Human and animal brain sizes imply an. Structurally and functionally, one of the best understood.

Happily, similar operations have been developed for robot. The retina is a transparent, paper- thin layer of nerve. It is connected by the. It is a part of the brain convenient for.

A human retina. is less than a centimeter square and a half- millimeter. It has about 1. 00 million neurons, of five distinct.

Light- sensitive cells feed wide spanning horizontal. Each of the million ganglion- cell axons. Overall. the retina seems to process about ten one- million- point. It takes robot vision programs about 1. MIPS to. repeat them ten times per second to match the retina. The 1,5. 00 cubic centimeter human brain is about 1.

MIPS. of computer power. Computer chess bolsters this. Deep Blue, the chess machine that bested world. Garry Kasparov in 1. MIPS universal computer (see Figure 3- 4). This is 1/3. 0 of the estimate for total human performance.

Since it is plausible that Kasparov, probably the best. Deep Blue's near parity with Kasparov's chess skill. The most powerful experimental supercomputers in 1.

MIPS. They are within striking. Why tie up a rare twenty- million- dollar asset to develop. Watch Online Watch Big Miracle Full Movie Online Film. Such machines are. AI. research must wait for the power to become more. If 1. 00 million MIPS could do the job of the human brain's. MIPS, i. e., 1,0.

That's. probably not enough to simulate an actual neuron, which. Our. estimate is for very efficient programs that imitate the. Almost. all nervous systems contain subassemblies that big. The small nervous systems of insects and other.

The few- hundred- million- bit insect genome is. Humans, on the other hand, have 1. The human brain seems to consist largely of regular.

Analogously, robot programs were. Now that they've grown. But there is a big practical.

Animals. learn individually, but robot learning can be copied from. For instance, today's text and. Decoupling. training from use will allow robots to do more with less. Big computers at the factory- -maybe supercomputers with.

Programs need memory as well as processing speed to do. The ratio of memory to speed has remained. The earliest. electronic computers had a few thousand bytes of memory. Medium computers of 1. Supercomputers. in 1. The latest, greatest.

Dividing memory. by speed defines a "time constant," roughly how. One megabyte per MIPS gives one second, a nice. Machines with less memory for their. Models with more memory for. For. instance, the original Macintosh was introduced in 1.

MIPS and 1/8 megabyte, and was then considered a. The equally fast "fat Mac". Mac plus" verged on slow. The four megabyte "Mac classic," the last 1/2. MIPS machine in the line, was intolerably slow, and was. Customers maintain the ratio by asking. The best evidence about nervous system memory puts most.

Molecular. adjustments allow synapses to be in a number of. Then. the 1. 00- trillion- synapse brain would hold the equivalent. This agrees with our earlier. MIPS to mimic the. The megabyte/MIPS ratio seems to hold. The contingency is the other way. On the other hand, faster.

MIPS. for each megabyte. Very slow machines, for instance. MIPS. Flying. insects seem to be a few times faster than humans, so may. MIPS than megabytes. As in animals, cells in.

Some plant cells seem specialized for. One day we may find that plants remember. DDT?). With our conversions, a 1. MIPS robot, for instance.

Navlab, has mental power similar to a 1. The following figure rates various entities. MIPS and Megabytes. Note the scale. Entities rated by. Universal computers. A. 1. 00- million- MIPS computer may be programmed not only to.

But humans cannot imitate. MIPS computers- -our general- purpose. MIPS. Deep. Blue's special- purpose chess chips process moves like a. MIPS computer, but its general- purpose power is.

MIPS. Most of the non- computer entities. Universality is an almost magical property, but it. A universal machine may use ten or more times. But if the. task should change, as it usually does in research, the. Extrapolation. By our estimate, today's very biggest supercomputers are. Their successors a decade hence will be more than powerful. Yet, it is unlikely that machines costing tens of.

Machines with. human- like performance will make economic sense only when they. When will that day arrive? The expense of computation has fallen rapidly and persistently. Steady improvements in mechanical and. World War II had increased.

The pace quickened with the appearance of electronic computers. Vacuum tubes. were replaced by transistors, and transistors by integrated. During the 1. 98. Powerful. inexpensive computer workstations replaced the drafting boards of. The time to bring a new generation.

The computer and. Computers doubled in capacity every two years after the war, a. In the 1. 98. 0s the doubling time contracted to 1. Faster than Exponential Growth in. Computing Power. The number of MIPS in $1. Steady improvements in. World War II. had increased the speed of calculation a thousandfold over manual.

The pace quickened with the appearance. The pace has been even quicker since then. The vertical scale is logarithmic. Exponential growth would show as a straight line. The reduced. spread of the data in the 1. The numerical data for this power curve are. At the present rate, computers suitable for humanlike robots will.

Can the pace be sustained for another three. The graph shows no sign of abatement. If anything, it. hints that further contractions in time scale are in store. But. one often encounters thoughtful articles by knowledgeable people. The keynote for advancing computation is miniaturization: smaller. First. the moving parts shrunk, from the gears in mechanical.